2018-19 Early winter weather predictions

With colder temperatures dominating this week, most of us are wondering what is in store for this winter.

The consensus seems to be that the 2018-19 winter, at least through January, will be warmer than average, but the precipitation outlook varies.

(Enjoy fall while it’s here by identifying some of the leaves in your yard.)

Both the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expect a weak El Nino climate pattern.

“El Nino is an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific,” NOAA said in a press release.

The warming ocean surface will bring in winds that will prevent cold air from lingering in the northern U.S.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts warm and wet conditions throughout Iowa and the eastern Midwest region. In fact, the almanac expects above-normal temperatures almost everywhere in the U.S., except the Southwest. NOAA predicts that no parts of the U.S. will have below average temperatures, and other outlooks seem to agree.

Accuweather‘s winter predictions predict that mild temperatures will be the norm for November and December but that will change in January and February. The Weather Company expects warm Iowa conditions to continue in January, with normal or slightly above average temperatures.

(November means turkey. Read about why turkeys look so odd.)

The Old Farmer’s Almanac says precipitation is expected to be above average, but snowfall is expected to be less than normal in the Midwest, and Accuweather’s forecast agrees. NOAA’s maps show precipitation around normal for Iowa and most of the Midwest.

Graphic about precipitation predictions

As for snow, NOAA says it’s anybody’s guess.

“Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur,” NOAA said.

I guess we’ll have to wait and see!



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